Imagining a Better Future

Seeing how we are writing here about the Depression - which may last a very long time and turn out to be a dramatic economic collapse - we feel it important to state once again we are confident that the future can actually improve for anyone who is prepared for it.

The most important preparation is to be optimistic in the sense we mean it: making the best out of every situation. At its most trite: when life hands you lemons, make lemonade. Loss can be liberating if you find new fields in which to apply yourself.

Of course it is also important to avoid certain traps that will stifle your ability to survive and prosper in the coming years. The biggest trap is the notion that things will go back the way they were. This even applies to a lot of notions of 'prosperity', 'growth' and so forth. More specifically it applies to notions people have about what is worth investing in: a career, real estate, the stock market. Most of the systems that have worked to make people better off in the past are breaking down, and will not deliver the goods going forward.

So what do you invest in? Try to invest as much as possible in yourself, your skills, your tools, things you have control over which will help you produce income or reduce expenditures. You must take full responsibility for your income, and for living within your means.

The biggest shock the world is facing is that the era of an ever-growing stream of material goods and services is coming to an end, and will become an shrinking stream for quite some time. Happily, your quality of life is not measured by how much stuff you can buy. But you have to focus with ruthless efficiency on managing your income and expenses or you will find yourself a Depression victim.

To have a better future, you must also avoid having a worse future. However, for many with debts, children, or other substantial obligations the future may be unavoidably worse before it gets better. In any case, try to identify your weaknesses with some cold honesty, and shore them up.

The route to prosperity is simple in theory: live within your means (no matter how meagre) and profitably invest the surplus. In practice this can be extremely challenging, but it is achievable.

Peak Population

There is fair amount of writing available about humanity's date with 'die-off', and although this is a possibility for the world, we believe a much gentler scenario will bring about a gradual decline in human numbers. It is not a particularly happy scenario though.

We agree with Dr. Virginia Abernethy's theory that it is anticipation of prosperity that causes people to choose to have many children, and concerns of hardship that cause them to limit their reproducing.

In the coming years, as the 2007 Depression deepens, many will come to realise they simply cannot afford children. Most potential parents will see dimmer prospects for themselves, less generosity from relatives, less aid from governments and social service organisations. In poorer countries, their will be less charitable aid coming in, and starvation will become more common.

It will take some time for real population restraint to take hold. Many people will continue to have children expecting the economy to 'turn around'. Efforts to limit migration from poorer countries to richer ones will build only gradually. Recognition that the world's economic landscape has changed will come only long after the fact.

But nevertheless, we expect to see noticeable changes in birthrates in the next few years. Many nations are already at below-replacement birth rates and rely on immigration to maintain their populations (if possible). Most of these nations' governments view this situation as a bad thing and have generous welfare programs to encourage childbearing. We expect steadily more nations to join the club of 'sub-replacement fertility' in spite of ever more shrill complaints about 'demographic collapse'.

We are not of the opinion that declining population in itself is necessarily a bad thing. In any case, it is an appropriate response to a deteriorating economic outlook.