We've been giving the issue of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin's resignation some thought, although we still wonder exactly what she has planned. Resigning before completing a term is not an unheard of manoeuvre, so such an act by Ms. Palin is not necessarily out of the ordinary. However, she seems to be a canny and clever person; we would be very surprised if she is simply leaving politics behind and returning to a quiet, private life.
On the contrary, this article from the Wall Street Journal gave us pause; "Governor's move highlights GOP divide," as the title says. The Republican Party has a rich and vibrant tradition of falling completely to pieces at various intervals, typically resulting in a name change (or at least a bifurcation of the Party). A collapse and reinvention of the GOP is not outside of the realm of possibility, in our minds.
Now, Ms. Palin's 'highlighting of divides' could just be another interior squabble of the Republican Party, which will resolve itself one way or the other. However, Mr. Gerald Celente, of the Trends Research Institute, has made it clear on numerous occasions that he expects to see a powerful third political party develop in the United States - partly in response to the Depression.
We regard Mr. Celente as a very smart man... he's paid lots of money to be very right, after all. We can think of no reason why a new party couldn't form, except perhaps the disinterest and passivity of the U.S. citizenry. If there were to be a new third party, we frankly don't expect it to bud off of the Democratic Party. A splintering of the Republican Party, on the other hand, is not unlikely, as the Party is under an incredible amount of political strain (e.g. sex scandals of former frontrunners for the 2012 Elections, losing their majority, and their perceived responsibility for the Nation's economic woes).
We ask the question, could Ms. Palin be one of the forces behind the creation of this new party? We wouldn't bet against that. Out of the present Republican Party, she is - in our mind - one of the few with any, shall we say, personality. She had a very striking rise to national attention, and has not really left the national scene entirely, even after the election. We wouldn't expect that her reasons for leaving her post as Governor include 'form new third party,' but we could definitely see her being part of any sort of movement in that direction.
We suggest watching Ms. Palin's actions closely for the next few months. Perhaps we are wrong, and she really does intend to leave politics behind. Whatever the case, though, we posit her moves will be most illuminating.
Showing posts with label third party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label third party. Show all posts
Monday, July 6, 2009
Saturday, April 18, 2009
What is the Likelihood of Rebellion?
The recent 'tea parties' on April 15th bring to the foreground that which has been seething under the surface of discourse in the United States: the anger against the course which the Federal Government has taken in managing the 2007 Depression. One need to look no further than these 'tea parties' to realise that this anger is indeed present. The question is, how far will this anger go?
Measuring this public sentiment is quite difficult, as the anger could simply result in the next elections ending in favour of one political party or another. However, there are - as far as the Federal Government is concerned - more serious implications of this anger. This can bee seen in the comments of Governor Rick Perry of Texas (as well as the following discussion thereof):
Secession from the Union of the United States need not necessarily be the end result of the justifiable anger felt by Citizens against the actions of both private and public figures. In fact, we would not be surprised if Gerald Celente's prediction of the rise of a third party came true: the dissatisfaction felt by the Citizenry with the present format of politics may indeed give rise to such a new power in the American political arena.
A new, powerful third party would be a relief, actually: it would help bleed off the pressure which the building anger is causing within the Citizenry. It would, at least on the surface, seem as if 'something' was actually being done. We only hope that this new party will be one which stands for actual, honest change, not warmed-over rhetoric from a teleprompter. The United States, if it is to survive as a viable political entity, needs to be overhauled in every way imaginable.
However, we are not willing to rule out rebellion entirely. Texas is just one of several States which have a historical propensity to 'bolt,' if you will. The Union has been left in tatters before, and we would frankly not be surprised if again it is shredded by the very People in whose name the Federal Government claims to act. Mr. Celente predicts tax riots and a revolution; we cannot argue with him on those points, as the foundations for those acts have already been built.
What we come down to, when thinking about the possibility of rebellion, is this: a vast number of Citizens would say "I did everything right. I played by the rules. I got screwed." They feel entitled to some sort of reward for what they perceive as their labours, and if they do not get said reward, they will feel greatly betrayed. They will look for new answers to the problem; answers which will probably be outside of the present de facto two-party political system. Hence, a new third party; we honestly see such a change as inevitable.
Take that same discontent, however, and add into it a long, horrific, destructive, hyperinflationary depression... say, like the 2007 Depression will probably be. In that case, the discontent will be vastly magnified: not only did the system not provide to those who feel entitled to a better life, but the system destroyed what life was had by these people. Imagine, if you will, the white-hot rage at that, especially if the destruction occurs over a relatively short amount of time. In that scenario, secession and violent rebellion would not be out of the picture by any means at all.
In our opinion, we don't think violent rebellion will be seen in the 2007 Depression. The American Citizenry is probably too pacified and unimaginative to resort to violent overthrow of the Federal Government. What wouldn't surprise us, however, would be systemic, nonviolent rebellion against the Federal Government by States. Those States which were fiscally responsible - for example, North Dakota - may come to resent continual bail-outs of profligate states - say, California - and indeed the Federal Government itself. Also, when the U.S. dollar blows out, the States may of necessity come up with their own monetary systems. At some point, the Federal Government could be so impotent that it will no longer have the power necessary to force the States to toe the line, as it were; at that point, the Union will be effectively dissolved.
How this building anger and discontent will be expressed is, in our opinion, still uncertain. Much of the future venting thereof will likely rest heavily upon the nature of whatever new political parties arise in the coming years. If those parties wish to rebuild the United States into a frugal, efficient, and thrifty nation, then there is hope for the Union to survive. If, on the other hand, those parties instead try to reinforce what was once the status quo at all costs... then we believe that all bets will be off.
Measuring this public sentiment is quite difficult, as the anger could simply result in the next elections ending in favour of one political party or another. However, there are - as far as the Federal Government is concerned - more serious implications of this anger. This can bee seen in the comments of Governor Rick Perry of Texas (as well as the following discussion thereof):
"We've got a great union. There's absolutely no reason to dissolve it. But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that. But Texas is a very unique place, and we're a pretty independent lot to boot."It is this 'independence' which started a little-remembered altercation known as the Mexican-American War. This also ties into the concept of State's Rights, which has been severely trampled upon by the Federal Government since the War Between the States. The Confederate States of America was founded upon the notion that States, having voluntarily entered into the Union, could also voluntarily leave it. This is the tradition which Governor Perry touched.
Secession from the Union of the United States need not necessarily be the end result of the justifiable anger felt by Citizens against the actions of both private and public figures. In fact, we would not be surprised if Gerald Celente's prediction of the rise of a third party came true: the dissatisfaction felt by the Citizenry with the present format of politics may indeed give rise to such a new power in the American political arena.
A new, powerful third party would be a relief, actually: it would help bleed off the pressure which the building anger is causing within the Citizenry. It would, at least on the surface, seem as if 'something' was actually being done. We only hope that this new party will be one which stands for actual, honest change, not warmed-over rhetoric from a teleprompter. The United States, if it is to survive as a viable political entity, needs to be overhauled in every way imaginable.
However, we are not willing to rule out rebellion entirely. Texas is just one of several States which have a historical propensity to 'bolt,' if you will. The Union has been left in tatters before, and we would frankly not be surprised if again it is shredded by the very People in whose name the Federal Government claims to act. Mr. Celente predicts tax riots and a revolution; we cannot argue with him on those points, as the foundations for those acts have already been built.
What we come down to, when thinking about the possibility of rebellion, is this: a vast number of Citizens would say "I did everything right. I played by the rules. I got screwed." They feel entitled to some sort of reward for what they perceive as their labours, and if they do not get said reward, they will feel greatly betrayed. They will look for new answers to the problem; answers which will probably be outside of the present de facto two-party political system. Hence, a new third party; we honestly see such a change as inevitable.
Take that same discontent, however, and add into it a long, horrific, destructive, hyperinflationary depression... say, like the 2007 Depression will probably be. In that case, the discontent will be vastly magnified: not only did the system not provide to those who feel entitled to a better life, but the system destroyed what life was had by these people. Imagine, if you will, the white-hot rage at that, especially if the destruction occurs over a relatively short amount of time. In that scenario, secession and violent rebellion would not be out of the picture by any means at all.
In our opinion, we don't think violent rebellion will be seen in the 2007 Depression. The American Citizenry is probably too pacified and unimaginative to resort to violent overthrow of the Federal Government. What wouldn't surprise us, however, would be systemic, nonviolent rebellion against the Federal Government by States. Those States which were fiscally responsible - for example, North Dakota - may come to resent continual bail-outs of profligate states - say, California - and indeed the Federal Government itself. Also, when the U.S. dollar blows out, the States may of necessity come up with their own monetary systems. At some point, the Federal Government could be so impotent that it will no longer have the power necessary to force the States to toe the line, as it were; at that point, the Union will be effectively dissolved.
How this building anger and discontent will be expressed is, in our opinion, still uncertain. Much of the future venting thereof will likely rest heavily upon the nature of whatever new political parties arise in the coming years. If those parties wish to rebuild the United States into a frugal, efficient, and thrifty nation, then there is hope for the Union to survive. If, on the other hand, those parties instead try to reinforce what was once the status quo at all costs... then we believe that all bets will be off.
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