This past week, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation closed three banks: Bradford Bank (Baltimore, Maryland); Mainstreet Bank (Forest Lake, Minnesota); and Affinity Bank (Ventura, California). Total assets of the closed banks were $1,911,000,000. The cost to the FDIC is estimated at $446,000,000. The percentage of FDIC loss out of total assets is 23.34%.
This closure brings the total assets of FDIC-failed banks (since December of 2007) to $462,118,180,000, with cost-to-FDIC brought to $36,362,500,000 - this includes the assets of Washington Mutual, whose closing offered no cost to the FDIC. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets presently stands at 7.87%, up from 7.80% as of last report.
Upon elimination of WaMu's assets from the analysis, total assets are $155,118,180,000, and total cost is $36,362,500,000. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets now stands at 23.44% unchanged from 23.44% as of last report.
These loss ratios have been so constant lately, we are wondering if the FDIC isn't just making up the numbers.
On the basis of the ratio of bank closures to population, and the ten most afflicted states are:
1. Nevada
2. Georgia
3. Utah
4. Illinois
5. Kansas
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota
8. Missouri
9. Florida
10. Colorado
On the basis of the total losses-to-assets ratio in each state, the worst are as follows:
1. Pennsylvania - 50.75%
2. Utah - 40.32%
3. Idaho - 39.11%
4. Michigan - 39.03%
5. Wyoming - 38.57%
6. Florida - 37.62%
7. West Virginia - 36.52%
8. Nevada - 35.56%
9. South Dakota - 33.90%
10. Washington - 32.39%
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Friday, August 28, 2009
Economic Stress Report for August 2009
Once again we've gathered sufficient data to provide an update on the Economic Stress Report. According to our analysis method, the following are the top ten States on our list of economically stressed states. We present them here in order of highest to lowest severity:
South Dakota
Vermont
Ohio
Arizona
Kansas
Montana
Washington
West Virginia
New York
Indiana
Of those States on our watch list, the following have suffered bank closures - another sign of economic stress - since December 2007:
South Dakota (1 closure)
Ohio (1 closure)
Arizona (2 closures)
Kansas (3 closures)
Washington (2 closures)
West Virginia (1 closure)
New York (1 closure)
The past month or so saw two big surprises for us: first was the very rapid fall of Maryland from stressed to 'troubled.' We're not completely convinced that Maryland's situation has suddenly improved for some reason, The State is still on our watch list, but it is no longer stressed, according to our analysis. Even so, we suspect that things will be getting quite a bit worse in Maryland, especially when the Federal Government is forced to commence personnel cutbacks (whenever than might occur), or when large numbers of bank failures finally take place.
The second surprise was Vermont's meteoric rise to runner-up basket case of the Union. We can only assume that Vermonters were somehow heavily over-extended, which quickly came back to haunt the economy in general, but that's just hand-waving. Frankly, we're not exactly sure why Vermont is apparently in such bad shape, so if any of you, Dear Readers, have thoughts, please share.
At this point we're hopping onto our old horse and ranting about South Dakota, still the worst-off State in the Union, according to our analysis. Simply put, we suspect that some political shenanigans are going down to prevent South Dakota from suffering the effects of its zomboid banking system. We have some thoughts on that, which we'll touch on in a future post, but suffice it to say that South Dakota should have had so many bank closures by now, it's not even funny.
Moving on, Ohio continues to hold third place for another month, so we take this as a sign that the State is in bad shape. Presumably the collapse of the American car industry continues to hit the State hard, and we expect that this condition will continue to worsen (perhaps by the eventual failure of Ford, or the re-failure of Chrysler or General Motors). Whatever the case, though, we feel it is a sign that Ohio is experiencing a relatively stable rate of economic contraction, as evidenced by its stable place as #3.
As a final note, we're very pleased to see that an increasing number of those States on our top ten list have suffered bank failures. This we take to be a good sign, perhaps indicating that our stress analysis will have a strong correlation with future bank failures. Time will tell, at any rate; the next report can likely be expected around the end of September.
South Dakota
Vermont
Ohio
Arizona
Kansas
Montana
Washington
West Virginia
New York
Indiana
Of those States on our watch list, the following have suffered bank closures - another sign of economic stress - since December 2007:
South Dakota (1 closure)
Ohio (1 closure)
Arizona (2 closures)
Kansas (3 closures)
Washington (2 closures)
West Virginia (1 closure)
New York (1 closure)
The past month or so saw two big surprises for us: first was the very rapid fall of Maryland from stressed to 'troubled.' We're not completely convinced that Maryland's situation has suddenly improved for some reason, The State is still on our watch list, but it is no longer stressed, according to our analysis. Even so, we suspect that things will be getting quite a bit worse in Maryland, especially when the Federal Government is forced to commence personnel cutbacks (whenever than might occur), or when large numbers of bank failures finally take place.
The second surprise was Vermont's meteoric rise to runner-up basket case of the Union. We can only assume that Vermonters were somehow heavily over-extended, which quickly came back to haunt the economy in general, but that's just hand-waving. Frankly, we're not exactly sure why Vermont is apparently in such bad shape, so if any of you, Dear Readers, have thoughts, please share.
At this point we're hopping onto our old horse and ranting about South Dakota, still the worst-off State in the Union, according to our analysis. Simply put, we suspect that some political shenanigans are going down to prevent South Dakota from suffering the effects of its zomboid banking system. We have some thoughts on that, which we'll touch on in a future post, but suffice it to say that South Dakota should have had so many bank closures by now, it's not even funny.
Moving on, Ohio continues to hold third place for another month, so we take this as a sign that the State is in bad shape. Presumably the collapse of the American car industry continues to hit the State hard, and we expect that this condition will continue to worsen (perhaps by the eventual failure of Ford, or the re-failure of Chrysler or General Motors). Whatever the case, though, we feel it is a sign that Ohio is experiencing a relatively stable rate of economic contraction, as evidenced by its stable place as #3.
As a final note, we're very pleased to see that an increasing number of those States on our top ten list have suffered bank failures. This we take to be a good sign, perhaps indicating that our stress analysis will have a strong correlation with future bank failures. Time will tell, at any rate; the next report can likely be expected around the end of September.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
FDIC Bank Failure Report - Extra-Late Edition
Last week, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation closed four banks: ebank (Atlanta, Georgia); First Coweta (Newnan, Georgia); CapitalSouth Bank (Birmingham, Alabama); and Guaranty Bank (Austin, Texas). Total assets of the closed banks were $13,927,000,000. The cost to the FDIC is estimated at $3,262,000,000. The percentage of FDIC loss out of total assets is 23.42%.
This closure brings the total assets of FDIC-failed banks (since December of 2007) to $460,207,180,000, with cost-to-FDIC brought to $35,916,500,000 - this includes the assets of Washington Mutual, whose closing offered no cost to the FDIC. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets presently stands at 7.80%, up from 7.32% as of last report.
Upon elimination of WaMu's assets from the analysis, total assets are $153,207,180,000, and total cost is $35,916,500,000. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets now stands at 23.44% down from 23.45% as of last report.
On the basis of the ratio of bank closures to population, and the ten most afflicted states are:
1. Nevada
2. Georgia
3. Utah
4. Illinois
5. Kansas
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota
8. Missouri
9. Florida
10. Colorado
On the basis of the total losses-to-assets ratio in each state, the worst are as follows:
1. Pennsylvania - 50.75%
2. Utah - 40.32%
3. Idaho - 39.11%
4. Michigan - 39.03%
5. Wyoming - 38.57%
6. Florida - 37.62%
7. West Virginia - 36.52%
8. Nevada - 35.56%
9. Maryland - 35.00%
10. South Dakota - 33.90%
This closure brings the total assets of FDIC-failed banks (since December of 2007) to $460,207,180,000, with cost-to-FDIC brought to $35,916,500,000 - this includes the assets of Washington Mutual, whose closing offered no cost to the FDIC. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets presently stands at 7.80%, up from 7.32% as of last report.
Upon elimination of WaMu's assets from the analysis, total assets are $153,207,180,000, and total cost is $35,916,500,000. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets now stands at 23.44% down from 23.45% as of last report.
On the basis of the ratio of bank closures to population, and the ten most afflicted states are:
1. Nevada
2. Georgia
3. Utah
4. Illinois
5. Kansas
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota
8. Missouri
9. Florida
10. Colorado
On the basis of the total losses-to-assets ratio in each state, the worst are as follows:
1. Pennsylvania - 50.75%
2. Utah - 40.32%
3. Idaho - 39.11%
4. Michigan - 39.03%
5. Wyoming - 38.57%
6. Florida - 37.62%
7. West Virginia - 36.52%
8. Nevada - 35.56%
9. Maryland - 35.00%
10. South Dakota - 33.90%
Monday, August 17, 2009
Housing Price Report for August
Our result for the first three months of our North American Housing Price Index is a drop of .73%. Results are inconclusive, but it would be inappropriate at this point to say that prices are either crashing, or recovering.
Tune in next month for our update.
Tune in next month for our update.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
FDIC Bank Failure Report
Last week, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation closed five banks: Dwelling House Savings and Loan Association (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania); Colonial Bank (Montgomery, Alabama); Union Bank, N.A. (Gilbert, Arizona); Community Bank of Arizona (Phoenix, Arizona); and Community Bank of Nevada (Las Vegas, Nevada). Total assets of the closed banks were $26,815,900,000. The cost to the FDIC is estimated at $3,674,800,000. The percentage of FDIC loss out of total assets is 13.70%.
This closure brings the total assets of FDIC-failed banks (since December of 2007) to $446,280,180,000, with cost-to-FDIC brought to $32,654,500,000 - this includes the assets of Washington Mutual, whose closing offered no cost to the FDIC. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets presently stands at 7.32%, up from 6.91% as of last report.
Upon elimination of WaMu's assets from the analysis, total assets are $139,280,180,000, and total cost is $23,654,500,000. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets now stands at 23.45% down from 25.77% as of last report.
A new record and two runners up for the ratio for FDIC losses to bank assets in a single institution were made this week. The Community Bank of Nevada had a 51.41% ratio of losses to assets; Dwelling House, 50.75%; and Union Bank, 49.19%. These banks were seriously insolvent, with losses approaching those normally discovered in Ponzi schemes!
On the basis of the ratio of bank closures to population, and the ten most afflicted states are:
1. Nevada
2. Georgia
3. Utah
4. Illinois
5. Kansas
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota
8. Missouri
9. Florida
10. Colorado
On the basis of the total losses-to-assets ratio in each state, the worst are as follows:
1. Pennsylvania - 50.75%
2. Utah - 40.32%
3. Idaho - 39.11%
4. Michigan - 39.03%
5. Wyoming - 38.57%
6. Florida - 37.62%
7. West Virginia - 36.52%
8. Nevada - 35.56%
9. Maryland - 35.00%
10. South Dakota - 33.90%
This closure brings the total assets of FDIC-failed banks (since December of 2007) to $446,280,180,000, with cost-to-FDIC brought to $32,654,500,000 - this includes the assets of Washington Mutual, whose closing offered no cost to the FDIC. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets presently stands at 7.32%, up from 6.91% as of last report.
Upon elimination of WaMu's assets from the analysis, total assets are $139,280,180,000, and total cost is $23,654,500,000. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets now stands at 23.45% down from 25.77% as of last report.
A new record and two runners up for the ratio for FDIC losses to bank assets in a single institution were made this week. The Community Bank of Nevada had a 51.41% ratio of losses to assets; Dwelling House, 50.75%; and Union Bank, 49.19%. These banks were seriously insolvent, with losses approaching those normally discovered in Ponzi schemes!
On the basis of the ratio of bank closures to population, and the ten most afflicted states are:
1. Nevada
2. Georgia
3. Utah
4. Illinois
5. Kansas
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota
8. Missouri
9. Florida
10. Colorado
On the basis of the total losses-to-assets ratio in each state, the worst are as follows:
1. Pennsylvania - 50.75%
2. Utah - 40.32%
3. Idaho - 39.11%
4. Michigan - 39.03%
5. Wyoming - 38.57%
6. Florida - 37.62%
7. West Virginia - 36.52%
8. Nevada - 35.56%
9. Maryland - 35.00%
10. South Dakota - 33.90%
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
FDIC Bank Closure Report, Quite Late
Last week, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation closed three banks: First State Bank (Sarasota, Florida); Community National Bank of Sarasota County (Venice, Florida); Community First Bank (Prineville, Oregon). Total assets of the closed banks were $769,000,000. The cost to the FDIC is estimated at $185,000,000. The percentage of FDIC loss out of total assets is 24.06%.
This closure brings the total assets of FDIC-failed banks (since December of 2007) to $419,464,280,000, with cost-to-FDIC brought to $28,979,700,000 - this includes the assets of Washington Mutual, whose closing offered no cost to the FDIC. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets presently stands at 6.91%, up from 6.88% as of last report.
Upon elimination of WaMu's assets from the analysis, total assets are $112,464,280,000, and total cost is $28,979,700,000. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets now stands at 25.77% down from 25.78% as of last report.
On the basis of the ratio of bank closures to population, and the ten most afflicted states are:
1. Georgia
2. Nevada
3. Utah
4. Illinois
5. Kansas
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota
8. Missouri
9. Florida
10. Colorado
On the basis of the total losses-to-assets ratio in each state, the worst are as follows:
1. Utah - 40.32%
2. Idaho - 39.11%
3. Michigan - 39.03%
4. Wyoming - 38.57%
5. Florida - 37.62%
6. West Virginia - 36.52%
7. Maryland - 35.00%
8. South Dakota - 33.90%
9. Minnesota - 33.01%
10. Washington - 32.39%
This closure brings the total assets of FDIC-failed banks (since December of 2007) to $419,464,280,000, with cost-to-FDIC brought to $28,979,700,000 - this includes the assets of Washington Mutual, whose closing offered no cost to the FDIC. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets presently stands at 6.91%, up from 6.88% as of last report.
Upon elimination of WaMu's assets from the analysis, total assets are $112,464,280,000, and total cost is $28,979,700,000. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets now stands at 25.77% down from 25.78% as of last report.
On the basis of the ratio of bank closures to population, and the ten most afflicted states are:
1. Georgia
2. Nevada
3. Utah
4. Illinois
5. Kansas
6. Oregon
7. Minnesota
8. Missouri
9. Florida
10. Colorado
On the basis of the total losses-to-assets ratio in each state, the worst are as follows:
1. Utah - 40.32%
2. Idaho - 39.11%
3. Michigan - 39.03%
4. Wyoming - 38.57%
5. Florida - 37.62%
6. West Virginia - 36.52%
7. Maryland - 35.00%
8. South Dakota - 33.90%
9. Minnesota - 33.01%
10. Washington - 32.39%
Sunday, August 2, 2009
FDIC Bank Failure Report - Extra-Late Edition
This week, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation closed five banks: First State Bank of Altus (Altus, Oklahoma); Integrity Bank (Jupiter, FL); Peoples Community Bank (West Chester, OH); First Bankamericano (Elizabeth, NJ); and Mutual Bank (Harvey, IL). Total assets of the closed banks were $2,694,200,000. The cost to the FDIC is estimated at $911,700,000. The percentage of FDIC loss out of total assets is 33.84%.
This closure brings the total assets of FDIC-failed banks (since December of 2007) to $418,695,280,000, with cost-to-FDIC brought to $28,794,700,000 - this includes the assets of Washington Mutual, whose closing offered no cost to the FDIC. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets presently stands at 6.88%, up from 6.70% as of last report.
Upon elimination of WaMu's assets from the analysis, total assets are $111,695,280,000, and total cost is $28,794,700,000. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets now stands at 25.78% up from 25.58% as of last report.
The first closure of an Ohio bank in the Depression is a good sign for the accuracy of our Economic Stress Report. In the last edition, Ohio ranked as the second-most stressed State, according to our analysis. Indeed, three of the five States with this week's failures are on our watch list. We expect that our Stress Report will more accurately predict coming bank failures (an indicator of economic stress) in future months.
On the basis of the ratio of bank closures to population, and the ten most afflicted states are:
1. Georgia
2. Nevada
3. Utah
4. Illinois
5. Kansas
6. Minnesota
7. Oregon
8. Missouri
9. Colorado
10. California
On the basis of the total losses-to-assets ratio in each state, the worst are as follows:
1. Utah - 40.32%
2. Idaho - 39.11%
3. Michigan - 39.03%
4. Wyoming - 38.57%
5. Florida - 38.12%
6. West Virginia - 36.52%
7. Maryland - 35.00%
8. South Dakota - 33.90%
9. Minnesota - 33.01%
10. Washington - 32.39%
This closure brings the total assets of FDIC-failed banks (since December of 2007) to $418,695,280,000, with cost-to-FDIC brought to $28,794,700,000 - this includes the assets of Washington Mutual, whose closing offered no cost to the FDIC. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets presently stands at 6.88%, up from 6.70% as of last report.
Upon elimination of WaMu's assets from the analysis, total assets are $111,695,280,000, and total cost is $28,794,700,000. The percentage of FDIC losses to total assets now stands at 25.78% up from 25.58% as of last report.
The first closure of an Ohio bank in the Depression is a good sign for the accuracy of our Economic Stress Report. In the last edition, Ohio ranked as the second-most stressed State, according to our analysis. Indeed, three of the five States with this week's failures are on our watch list. We expect that our Stress Report will more accurately predict coming bank failures (an indicator of economic stress) in future months.
On the basis of the ratio of bank closures to population, and the ten most afflicted states are:
1. Georgia
2. Nevada
3. Utah
4. Illinois
5. Kansas
6. Minnesota
7. Oregon
8. Missouri
9. Colorado
10. California
On the basis of the total losses-to-assets ratio in each state, the worst are as follows:
1. Utah - 40.32%
2. Idaho - 39.11%
3. Michigan - 39.03%
4. Wyoming - 38.57%
5. Florida - 38.12%
6. West Virginia - 36.52%
7. Maryland - 35.00%
8. South Dakota - 33.90%
9. Minnesota - 33.01%
10. Washington - 32.39%
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