Once again we've gathered sufficient data to provide an update on the Economic Stress Report. According to our analysis method, the following are the top ten States on our list of economically stressed states. We present them here in order of highest to lowest severity:
1. South Dakota
2. Vermont
3. Ohio
4. Arizona
5. Kansas
6. Nevada (new to list)
7. New Hampshire (new to list)
8. Connecticut (new to list)
9. West Virginia (down from #8)
10. Indiana
The big, pleasant surprise for us in this report is that the top five states are unchanged from last report. New additions to the second decile are: Nevada (up from #11 of last report); New Hampshire and Connecticut (both not even on the 'watch list' of last report!). Falling out of the second decile are Montana (down to #11); Washington (down to #12); and New York (down to #13).
The consistency of the top states gives us hope our methodology is fairly sound as more data pours in. That several of these states are on our list should be no surprise to anyone - Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, and Indiana. Perhaps more remarkable is that the famous basket-case of California is missing. We don't think the absence of the Golden State in our stress measure is in any way a positive reflection on California's economy. Rather, we believe that worse conditions lie elsewhere under the radar of widespread public attention.
Showing posts with label economic stress report. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic stress report. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
The Worst-Off Places
Based on our proprietary stress index and the ongoing parade of bank failures, we are coming to the conclusion that the worst off states in the USA are (insert drum-roll, please) Arizona and Nevada. Both of these States are in the top ten of bank-failures-to-population, and losses-to-assets; additionally, unreleased data from our stress index shows that both States have moved into the top ten of stressed states. Further evidence includes the above-national-average unemployment rate in Nevada and house foreclosure rates in both states.
We suggest the acuteness of distress in these two states is a telling commentary on the nature of the present Depression. This Depression is not just about economics, but habitability itself - that is, the very appropriateness of a place for human habitation.
These two, desert states are the quintessence of artifice. They are full of cities that have no business being there and only exist because developers wanted to make a fast buck. Now the easy credit bubble which drove the process of unsustainable colonisation has popped, these states are entering a tailspin faster and harder than the rest of the Union. We posit that the drying-up-and-blowing-away process will be much shorter and more catastrophic than the aforementioned colonisation.
Generally speaking, people appear to have forgotten that Arizona and Nevada are predominantly deserts; indeed, they seem sublimely convinced that those states are somehow permanently sustainable. This can easily be contrasted with, say, Michigan, another severely distressed state, which has an enviable natural endowment - the Great Lakes, ample rainfall, fertile farmland, vast forests.
Simply put, however bleak the future might be, Michigan's population has one. The same can not be said for Arizona and Nevada. As the Federal highway, water, and electric systems upon which these two states are utterly dependent decline, the capacity of these two states to support human population will diminish and the dream of the Desert Paradise in the American Southwest will expire.
We suggest, as part of Depression preparedness, our readers ask themselves how habitable is it where they live? How would you get around without cars and highways? Where is the nearest source of fresh water? of electrical power? In the deserts, how would you manage without air conditioning? In colder climes, what if it cost four times as much to heat your house during winter?
What answers you might derive, dear Reader, informs whether or not any given area will be able to support people. This includes both basic foodways, as well as the economic systems necessary to facilitate their interaction in the larger economy. We feel the national (and global) economy will not have sufficient 'fat,' if you will, to support places which, in the end, contribute nothing of any value or importance.
We suggest the acuteness of distress in these two states is a telling commentary on the nature of the present Depression. This Depression is not just about economics, but habitability itself - that is, the very appropriateness of a place for human habitation.
These two, desert states are the quintessence of artifice. They are full of cities that have no business being there and only exist because developers wanted to make a fast buck. Now the easy credit bubble which drove the process of unsustainable colonisation has popped, these states are entering a tailspin faster and harder than the rest of the Union. We posit that the drying-up-and-blowing-away process will be much shorter and more catastrophic than the aforementioned colonisation.
Generally speaking, people appear to have forgotten that Arizona and Nevada are predominantly deserts; indeed, they seem sublimely convinced that those states are somehow permanently sustainable. This can easily be contrasted with, say, Michigan, another severely distressed state, which has an enviable natural endowment - the Great Lakes, ample rainfall, fertile farmland, vast forests.
Simply put, however bleak the future might be, Michigan's population has one. The same can not be said for Arizona and Nevada. As the Federal highway, water, and electric systems upon which these two states are utterly dependent decline, the capacity of these two states to support human population will diminish and the dream of the Desert Paradise in the American Southwest will expire.
We suggest, as part of Depression preparedness, our readers ask themselves how habitable is it where they live? How would you get around without cars and highways? Where is the nearest source of fresh water? of electrical power? In the deserts, how would you manage without air conditioning? In colder climes, what if it cost four times as much to heat your house during winter?
What answers you might derive, dear Reader, informs whether or not any given area will be able to support people. This includes both basic foodways, as well as the economic systems necessary to facilitate their interaction in the larger economy. We feel the national (and global) economy will not have sufficient 'fat,' if you will, to support places which, in the end, contribute nothing of any value or importance.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Economic Stress Report for August 2009
Once again we've gathered sufficient data to provide an update on the Economic Stress Report. According to our analysis method, the following are the top ten States on our list of economically stressed states. We present them here in order of highest to lowest severity:
South Dakota
Vermont
Ohio
Arizona
Kansas
Montana
Washington
West Virginia
New York
Indiana
Of those States on our watch list, the following have suffered bank closures - another sign of economic stress - since December 2007:
South Dakota (1 closure)
Ohio (1 closure)
Arizona (2 closures)
Kansas (3 closures)
Washington (2 closures)
West Virginia (1 closure)
New York (1 closure)
The past month or so saw two big surprises for us: first was the very rapid fall of Maryland from stressed to 'troubled.' We're not completely convinced that Maryland's situation has suddenly improved for some reason, The State is still on our watch list, but it is no longer stressed, according to our analysis. Even so, we suspect that things will be getting quite a bit worse in Maryland, especially when the Federal Government is forced to commence personnel cutbacks (whenever than might occur), or when large numbers of bank failures finally take place.
The second surprise was Vermont's meteoric rise to runner-up basket case of the Union. We can only assume that Vermonters were somehow heavily over-extended, which quickly came back to haunt the economy in general, but that's just hand-waving. Frankly, we're not exactly sure why Vermont is apparently in such bad shape, so if any of you, Dear Readers, have thoughts, please share.
At this point we're hopping onto our old horse and ranting about South Dakota, still the worst-off State in the Union, according to our analysis. Simply put, we suspect that some political shenanigans are going down to prevent South Dakota from suffering the effects of its zomboid banking system. We have some thoughts on that, which we'll touch on in a future post, but suffice it to say that South Dakota should have had so many bank closures by now, it's not even funny.
Moving on, Ohio continues to hold third place for another month, so we take this as a sign that the State is in bad shape. Presumably the collapse of the American car industry continues to hit the State hard, and we expect that this condition will continue to worsen (perhaps by the eventual failure of Ford, or the re-failure of Chrysler or General Motors). Whatever the case, though, we feel it is a sign that Ohio is experiencing a relatively stable rate of economic contraction, as evidenced by its stable place as #3.
As a final note, we're very pleased to see that an increasing number of those States on our top ten list have suffered bank failures. This we take to be a good sign, perhaps indicating that our stress analysis will have a strong correlation with future bank failures. Time will tell, at any rate; the next report can likely be expected around the end of September.
South Dakota
Vermont
Ohio
Arizona
Kansas
Montana
Washington
West Virginia
New York
Indiana
Of those States on our watch list, the following have suffered bank closures - another sign of economic stress - since December 2007:
South Dakota (1 closure)
Ohio (1 closure)
Arizona (2 closures)
Kansas (3 closures)
Washington (2 closures)
West Virginia (1 closure)
New York (1 closure)
The past month or so saw two big surprises for us: first was the very rapid fall of Maryland from stressed to 'troubled.' We're not completely convinced that Maryland's situation has suddenly improved for some reason, The State is still on our watch list, but it is no longer stressed, according to our analysis. Even so, we suspect that things will be getting quite a bit worse in Maryland, especially when the Federal Government is forced to commence personnel cutbacks (whenever than might occur), or when large numbers of bank failures finally take place.
The second surprise was Vermont's meteoric rise to runner-up basket case of the Union. We can only assume that Vermonters were somehow heavily over-extended, which quickly came back to haunt the economy in general, but that's just hand-waving. Frankly, we're not exactly sure why Vermont is apparently in such bad shape, so if any of you, Dear Readers, have thoughts, please share.
At this point we're hopping onto our old horse and ranting about South Dakota, still the worst-off State in the Union, according to our analysis. Simply put, we suspect that some political shenanigans are going down to prevent South Dakota from suffering the effects of its zomboid banking system. We have some thoughts on that, which we'll touch on in a future post, but suffice it to say that South Dakota should have had so many bank closures by now, it's not even funny.
Moving on, Ohio continues to hold third place for another month, so we take this as a sign that the State is in bad shape. Presumably the collapse of the American car industry continues to hit the State hard, and we expect that this condition will continue to worsen (perhaps by the eventual failure of Ford, or the re-failure of Chrysler or General Motors). Whatever the case, though, we feel it is a sign that Ohio is experiencing a relatively stable rate of economic contraction, as evidenced by its stable place as #3.
As a final note, we're very pleased to see that an increasing number of those States on our top ten list have suffered bank failures. This we take to be a good sign, perhaps indicating that our stress analysis will have a strong correlation with future bank failures. Time will tell, at any rate; the next report can likely be expected around the end of September.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Economic Stress Report
We've just gathered sufficient data to provide an update on the Economic Stress Report we introduced last month. According to our analysis method, the following States are on our watch list. We present them here in order of highest to lowest severity:
South Dakota
Ohio
Kansas
Arizona
Washington
New York
Maryland
Florida
Alabama
Connecticut
Of those States on our watch list, the following have suffered bank closures - another sign of economic stress - since December 2007:
South Dakota (1 closure)
Kansas (3 closures)
Washington (2 closures)
Maryland (1 closures)
Florida (5 closures)
With this information, we've updated our predictions from our last post:
One: the list has seen some reshuffling since our last post, but the star of the show is still South Dakota. We take this opportunity to do our happy victory dance: the State, as we predicted it would, recently suffered its first bank closure of the 2007 Depression. However, we strongly suspect that many, many more closures are in store for the State. When that will happen is anyone's guess, but we can't think of one good reason why South Dakota won't be seriously hit by both bank closures and general economic distress. Using Florida as the benchmark, South Dakota should have seen around twenty bank closures already.
Two: we still expect that Maryland is going to be hit hard by both unemployment and bank closures. Again using Florida as a benchmark, Maryland should have experienced about five bank closures. Considering the State's mere placement on our analysis, we would be very surprised indeed if at least something bad doesn't happen. The safety net of Government spending can only last so long; when both the Federal and State Governments are finally forced to curtail their spending, Maryland is going down hard and fast.
It seems we might be able to provide updates approximately monthly, but the duration might be longer or shorter, depending on how our data accumulation progresses.
South Dakota
Ohio
Kansas
Arizona
Washington
New York
Maryland
Florida
Alabama
Connecticut
Of those States on our watch list, the following have suffered bank closures - another sign of economic stress - since December 2007:
South Dakota (1 closure)
Kansas (3 closures)
Washington (2 closures)
Maryland (1 closures)
Florida (5 closures)
With this information, we've updated our predictions from our last post:
One: the list has seen some reshuffling since our last post, but the star of the show is still South Dakota. We take this opportunity to do our happy victory dance: the State, as we predicted it would, recently suffered its first bank closure of the 2007 Depression. However, we strongly suspect that many, many more closures are in store for the State. When that will happen is anyone's guess, but we can't think of one good reason why South Dakota won't be seriously hit by both bank closures and general economic distress. Using Florida as the benchmark, South Dakota should have seen around twenty bank closures already.
Two: we still expect that Maryland is going to be hit hard by both unemployment and bank closures. Again using Florida as a benchmark, Maryland should have experienced about five bank closures. Considering the State's mere placement on our analysis, we would be very surprised indeed if at least something bad doesn't happen. The safety net of Government spending can only last so long; when both the Federal and State Governments are finally forced to curtail their spending, Maryland is going down hard and fast.
It seems we might be able to provide updates approximately monthly, but the duration might be longer or shorter, depending on how our data accumulation progresses.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Introducing the Economic Stress Report
We've developed a method of measuring economic stress by State within in the United States. We believe it is fairly accurate, but it is, at the very least, not doctored or focus-group tested for maximum warm-fuzzy-feeling-ness. Our method is a secret, but it is tied to each State's percentage share of the total U.S. population.
Related to that, our depth of data is presently not sufficient for us to analyse the economic condition of some of the States in the Union. In the coming weeks we expect our data quality to improve, and concurrently our ability to analyse these States.
With that, we officially launch our Economic Stress Report. On our stress watch list are the following States, in order of most to least distressed:
South Dakota, Maryland, Arizona, Hawai'i, North Carolina, Ohio, Connecticut, Oregon, New York, Florida, and Georgia.
Our of those States, the following have suffered bank closures - another measure of stress - since December 2007: Maryland (1), North Carolina (2), Florida (5), and Georgia (11). Based on this information, we have several predictions to make:
One: unemployment in Maryland is going to "unexpectedly" spike in the coming months. Although the State is touted as having strong support from the Federal Government, and currently is experiencing unemployment below the national average, it has ranked second place in our analysis, so we suspect the Government-supported economy will begin to fail catastrophically. Additionally, more bank closures in the State should be forthcoming.
Two: numerous bank closures should be imminent in South Dakota, as it is the most distressed State in our analysis. Considering Georgia has suffered eleven closures, proportionally South Dakota should have seen over one hundred closures this far into the Depression. Why there have been no closures in South Dakota is a mystery as it is an important banking centre - especially for credit cards, but we posit that the longer there are no closures, the worse the eventual collapse of the State's banking system will be.
Three: Arizona, Hawai'i, Ohio, Connecticut, Oregon, and New York should all be seeing bank closures in the near future. Florida and North Carolina should also see additional bank failures, if Georgia is to be taken as a benchmark.
We are uncertain how rapidly we will be able to provide updates on the Stress Report. However, at present we suspect not less frequentlly than monthly. Rest assured we will keep you updated.
Related to that, our depth of data is presently not sufficient for us to analyse the economic condition of some of the States in the Union. In the coming weeks we expect our data quality to improve, and concurrently our ability to analyse these States.
With that, we officially launch our Economic Stress Report. On our stress watch list are the following States, in order of most to least distressed:
South Dakota, Maryland, Arizona, Hawai'i, North Carolina, Ohio, Connecticut, Oregon, New York, Florida, and Georgia.
Our of those States, the following have suffered bank closures - another measure of stress - since December 2007: Maryland (1), North Carolina (2), Florida (5), and Georgia (11). Based on this information, we have several predictions to make:
One: unemployment in Maryland is going to "unexpectedly" spike in the coming months. Although the State is touted as having strong support from the Federal Government, and currently is experiencing unemployment below the national average, it has ranked second place in our analysis, so we suspect the Government-supported economy will begin to fail catastrophically. Additionally, more bank closures in the State should be forthcoming.
Two: numerous bank closures should be imminent in South Dakota, as it is the most distressed State in our analysis. Considering Georgia has suffered eleven closures, proportionally South Dakota should have seen over one hundred closures this far into the Depression. Why there have been no closures in South Dakota is a mystery as it is an important banking centre - especially for credit cards, but we posit that the longer there are no closures, the worse the eventual collapse of the State's banking system will be.
Three: Arizona, Hawai'i, Ohio, Connecticut, Oregon, and New York should all be seeing bank closures in the near future. Florida and North Carolina should also see additional bank failures, if Georgia is to be taken as a benchmark.
We are uncertain how rapidly we will be able to provide updates on the Stress Report. However, at present we suspect not less frequentlly than monthly. Rest assured we will keep you updated.
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