Analysis of 1929 Depression Survivors' Advice

As the 2007 Depression continues, we expect that still-living survivors of the 1929 Depression will be getting more air-time. In our mind, it is sad that an economic calamity had to occur before these people's well-tested advice is given its due. The frugality and thrift which is so deeply ingrained in the individuals would have prevented much of what is occurring today - if only the greater public would have listened.

But that is neither here nor there; we want to discuss both the advice that these survivors offer (taken from two articles), and some inherent problems. First, the advice: in this article from The Ledger, one individual recommends a 20% personal savings rate; another says not to buy things one cannot afford. The most interesting insight, at least to us, is the thought that the young of the United States, having lived with nothing but a knee-jerk consumeristic lifestyle are in for a serious shock, at the very least. All in all, we recommend this article; it's interesting to hear the perspectives of these survivors, and their advice is never out of style.

On the other side of the coin is the bad advice, as seen in this otherwise excellent article from Utica Observer-Dispatch. One of the survivors says that the 1929 Depression was completely different from this 'recession,' but fails to suggest how or why (as an aside, she gave corollaries and outcomes of the 1929 Depression, not causes). The general thrust of the article seems to us to be that "the government is prepared;" “I don’t think [a Depression] could happen again” said one interviewee.

These two articles highlight some inherent difficulties in turning to 1929 Depression survivors: these people are old. There are sharp-as-a-tack survivors (we know one), but that term does not describe every survivor. A not-insignificant number of these survivors are not in as full of command of their faculties as they once were. This has a number of implications.

First, even when the advice survivors give is sound and useful, they cannot defend why it is as such; to them, it is only the way things must be done. Because of that, these survivors come across as a bit senile at best, or outright loonie-tunes at worst, from the perspective of later generations. It is easy enough for one to dismiss well-defended advice; it is infinitely easier to dismiss advice without supporting argument.

Second, because of the loss of facility which comes with increasing age, many of these survivors probably have to rely - at least in part - on what they hear and read, rather than anything they actually remember. The post-1929 Depression mantra carries with it a healthy dose of Franklin Roosevelt worship, and Herbert Hoover bashing. Both of those Presidents have similarly damaging policies; Roosevelt's was remarkable for being aggressively un-Constitutional. This loss of first-hand memory allows for retroactive continuity: the 'memories' of the survivor are clouded by the rhetoric of later generations defending the expansion of the Federal Government.

And finally third: these survivors can only reflect the point-of-view of persons who didn't die during the 1929 Depression. Almost all survivors came from fairly well-off families; they owned their own home, they could hold some jobs, they could buy and grow some food. There were many more families which had none of the above, and many simply died of stress and starvation. The survivors who speak today do so through a bias: they were comfortably-off before the 1929 Depression, and so had a cushion between death and survival. They did not see the absolute horror that the 1929 Depression brought to the United States.

We expect the 2007 Depression will bring similar horror. The only question, in our minds, is when.

Why Aren't Savings Rates Moving Even Higher?

From the last quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009, the USA personal savings rate went up from just over 3% annualised to just over 4%. This movement is expected during economic decline, but we are asking the question: given how severe the decline is, why aren't people saving even more?

The USA has barely budged from a culture of consumerism to a culture of thrift. Given the depth of the crisis, we would expect the response on the part of the citizenry to be more urgent. There are several possible explanations as to why the increase in savings is muted.

One is that the citizenry is 'buying' the official story that the 'recession' will be ending this year and recovery will follow. Thus, with the difficulties apparently only of a short-term nature, people can continue their spending habits mostly as usual with some minor adjustments (e.g. shopping more at Wal-Mart).

Another explanation is that somehow the citizenry 'knows' that the 'recession' is short-term and is acting appropriately. Things really are aren't all that bad. In this scenario, our estimations are way-off, and our use of the term depression, over-reactive.

Perhaps there is just a lot of cultural lag. We have read quite a few horror-stories about people who lost their livelihoods, but just kept on spending as if nothing was going on - and, in the process, depleted their savings and ran up credit-card debts. Perhaps a large portion of the population is engaging in massive denial and unconscious, inappropriate spending.

Finally, at the depth of the Great Depression in 1932 and 1933, much to their chagrin, Americans dis-saved and personal savings rates went negative. It's possible that history repeats and although people may want to be saving more, circumstances are too harsh and spending patterns are adjusted too late.

Peasant Virtues

As our income has fallen, we have been trying to rediscover the skills our ancestors used to manage their financial affairs. We break the skills into three sets: Industry, Frugality, and Thrift.

Industry is not here referring to factories and mines, but the idea of doing things for one's self. Hungry? Don't run to McBurger Kong, but make a meal for yourself. Cost of fresh food got you down? Grow some. The basic principle here is what economists call import substitution. Instead of importing goods and services into your household and exporting money, you substitute the fruits of your own labour (sometimes literally) for what you would buy from others.

Industry is also about figuring out what you can do to make extra money, on the side - if you still have a job, or as self-employment. Lots of things always need doing. If you can't figure out what to do to make money, keep busy around the home - chances are there are many worthwhile projects. Also, you may teach yourself some marketable skills.

Frugality is all about enjoying what you have as long as possible before you replace it. And when you do replace it, do that as inexpensively as possible. Let's suppose you have an article of clothing, say a sweat-shirt, and it's getting a little ratty on the collar and cuffs. Does it still keep you warm? Then keep it! You might say, "But it's shabby." Listen: a new one costs money (even if you make it yourself), and this one is free. Any money you spend is infinitely more money than not spending money. A new thing is not infinitely better than an old, shabby but serviceable thing. When you spend money to replace something which still works, you are being irrational. It's OK to be irrational now and then, but don't try to pretend that you are being rational by coming up with reasons that the new thing is better.

When it comes time to replace something, go first to rummage sales and thrift stores. Often you can find very good quality things at minuscule prices. Frugality is also about finding which stores get you the best prices, finding the best deals, conserving energy, and repairing things as cost effectively as possible.

Thrift has two components. The first is to look at money coming in as something to be saved, not spent. This is, for inhabitants of the developed world, counter-cultural. One hears countless messages to spend from family, friends, coworkers, employers, salespeople, and marketing. If your financial situation is not so good, the more you save the faster it will improve.

The second component of thrift, which answers the question of where the best place for most people to put their savings, is: Never, ever borrow money. People have gotten very lax on this in recent decades, and the results have been catastrophic. If you are fortunate enough not to have burned by your debts so far in the Depression, don't take any more chances. When all your debts are paid, you may then delve into the joys of learning to invest your savings. On this last point we must insist that you learn to manage your own affairs, and not leave the decisions to 'experts'. The experts have done very badly lately.