Our title today comes from a phrase ripped out of context from a recent Wall Street Journal article. The article itself is not important, but the assumption of the phrase was just too rich for us to pass by uncommented upon.
As discussed copiously elsewhere, a propaganda campaign of gargantuan proportions has been unleashed upon the world's populace. The term perception management sums it up nicely. The basic idea is that if people are confident, they will consume. If people will consume, there will be 'work' to do. It is an effort to restore society and the economy to the defined norm of 'the way things were until about two years ago.' Whatever an individual sees or experiences to the contrary (especially unemployment and homelessness), is to be disregarded in favour of the consumerist paradigm.
Almost everything you read or hear will be attempting to reinforce the notion that the recent (and thankfully over) financial and economic crisis was just a bump in the road to ever greater prosperity.
Whether there is a vast conspiracy orchestrated by the Ministry of Truth, or whether it is merely the unconscious coordination of wishful thinking is immaterial. This informational miasma is deadly and if one wants to make it through the Depression without being too battered, one had best learn to recognise the disinformation, not get sucked in, and think straight instead.
The unhappy reality is the Depression is still on and it is going to get worse - a lot worse. Incomes are still falling. It doesn't matter that stocks are recovering or house prices in Australia are hitting new highs. In terms of purchasing power, aggregate incomes are going to be falling for a long time and everyone had better get used to that fact. Tragically, the more the truth is evaded (whether deliberately or otherwise), the worse off everyone will be.
Showing posts with label wall street journal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wall street journal. Show all posts
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Better Chicago than Detroit
It's happening, dear Reader: we're seeing more and more posts in the blogosphere which sound more and more like us. It seems that a --presumably -- growing number of people are coming around to something like our point of view. "What are the odds of a depression?" whines a piece from the Wall Street Journal; "How government prolonged the Depression" reports another WSJ article.
We feel nervous about all that; in order to be remotely accurate, we believe we should be saying the exact opposite as the rest of mainstream society. With all the hubbub about depressions and such, we wonder if we should be changing our tune... but we'll get back to that.
One thing we haven't seen the mainstream talking much about is the decay of the major cities of the United States. These cities were once America's leading centres of population and culture... now they tend to be more husk-like than anything. This is a significant trend in the United States, which we feel accurately reflects the decay in the quality of living conditions in this country. It's probably not changing anytime soon.
President Obama promised the Citizenry change, and change, of a sort, he will probably bring. But let us point out what he will probably do: he will do what he can to support the Chicago-isation of the United States. Let us be frank, here: Chicago is a town run for the comfort and convenience of the government workers; Mayor Richard Daley rules with an iron fist; every welfare recipient is a voter (who votes the 'right' way).
But -- and we have to grit our teeth here -- it's not that bad. We've visited Chicago, and we could live there, if we had to... and we probably wouldn't even become terribly suicidal. The way we look at it, things could be more like Detroit: no comforts and conveniences, no iron fist, no 'right way' voters. Add to that: no future. Chicago, for all its faults, is at least limping along as a city, and is a place a person could live. Detroit is a catastrophe, a city where people can't seem to leave fast enough.
To tie everything together, we still think the 2007 Depression has a long way to run. We don't expect to see a bottom anytime soon, but we are getting a pretty good idea of what it might look like: the United States will be run Chicago-style, and the Wall Street Journal will have the headline: "Will this Depression ever end?"
We feel nervous about all that; in order to be remotely accurate, we believe we should be saying the exact opposite as the rest of mainstream society. With all the hubbub about depressions and such, we wonder if we should be changing our tune... but we'll get back to that.
One thing we haven't seen the mainstream talking much about is the decay of the major cities of the United States. These cities were once America's leading centres of population and culture... now they tend to be more husk-like than anything. This is a significant trend in the United States, which we feel accurately reflects the decay in the quality of living conditions in this country. It's probably not changing anytime soon.
President Obama promised the Citizenry change, and change, of a sort, he will probably bring. But let us point out what he will probably do: he will do what he can to support the Chicago-isation of the United States. Let us be frank, here: Chicago is a town run for the comfort and convenience of the government workers; Mayor Richard Daley rules with an iron fist; every welfare recipient is a voter (who votes the 'right' way).
But -- and we have to grit our teeth here -- it's not that bad. We've visited Chicago, and we could live there, if we had to... and we probably wouldn't even become terribly suicidal. The way we look at it, things could be more like Detroit: no comforts and conveniences, no iron fist, no 'right way' voters. Add to that: no future. Chicago, for all its faults, is at least limping along as a city, and is a place a person could live. Detroit is a catastrophe, a city where people can't seem to leave fast enough.
To tie everything together, we still think the 2007 Depression has a long way to run. We don't expect to see a bottom anytime soon, but we are getting a pretty good idea of what it might look like: the United States will be run Chicago-style, and the Wall Street Journal will have the headline: "Will this Depression ever end?"
Saturday, February 7, 2009
The Gold Jewellery Myth
Just the other day we were handed a piece from the Wall Street Journal, which you can read here. This piece brings to mind an issue we've been wondering about over the last several months: why is there such a fixation on gold-as-jewellery being the prime mover in gold's price?
The graph that the Journal provides is courtesy of HSBC -- more on that bank shortly. It seems to suggest that demand for physical gold for 2008 (estimated around 3,500 metric tonnes) breaks down roughly into 10% "other," 30% investment, and 60% jewellery. Generally, we don't dispute that the demand for physical gold is indeed mostly jewellery related; it's the most popular and easily-discovered form which the common schmoe can expect to see.
Another pundit who also espouses the 'gold is driven by jewellery' line is Jon Nadler of KITCO. His angle is more specific: he points to India. India is the largest importer and consumer of gold and gold jewellery, and in Mr. Nadler's world, that means India drives the price of gold. Hmmm...
Let's say that gold-as-jewellery was 2,000 metric tonnes in 2008, which is worth around $58,000,000,000 at $900 per troy ounce. Big number, quite intimidating.. but now let's look at the volume of 100 troy ounce contracts traded on the NYMEX on February 5th only. Crunching the numbers, there are 107,136 contracts, which equals 10,713,600 troy ounces, which represents $9,642,240,000 at $900 per ounce. In one day. This is approximately forty times one day's jewellery buying.
Looking at the actual dollar values of these two markets, we feel it is pretty self evident which is the prime mover in the price of gold. At this point -- and we're looking at you, Mr. Nadler -- we would very much like to not hear anymore twaddle about Diwali gold-buying causing the price of gold to do anything at all.
Finally, HSBC is the banker and financier for KITCO. KITCO is rumoured to have a huge naked short position in gold, and HSBC undoubtedly financed that operation. Both these organisations want to keep themselves in business... Mr. Nadler often sounds like he speaks for a company -- or companies -- on the wrong side of a losing bet.
The graph that the Journal provides is courtesy of HSBC -- more on that bank shortly. It seems to suggest that demand for physical gold for 2008 (estimated around 3,500 metric tonnes) breaks down roughly into 10% "other," 30% investment, and 60% jewellery. Generally, we don't dispute that the demand for physical gold is indeed mostly jewellery related; it's the most popular and easily-discovered form which the common schmoe can expect to see.
Another pundit who also espouses the 'gold is driven by jewellery' line is Jon Nadler of KITCO. His angle is more specific: he points to India. India is the largest importer and consumer of gold and gold jewellery, and in Mr. Nadler's world, that means India drives the price of gold. Hmmm...
Let's say that gold-as-jewellery was 2,000 metric tonnes in 2008, which is worth around $58,000,000,000 at $900 per troy ounce. Big number, quite intimidating.. but now let's look at the volume of 100 troy ounce contracts traded on the NYMEX on February 5th only. Crunching the numbers, there are 107,136 contracts, which equals 10,713,600 troy ounces, which represents $9,642,240,000 at $900 per ounce. In one day. This is approximately forty times one day's jewellery buying.
Looking at the actual dollar values of these two markets, we feel it is pretty self evident which is the prime mover in the price of gold. At this point -- and we're looking at you, Mr. Nadler -- we would very much like to not hear anymore twaddle about Diwali gold-buying causing the price of gold to do anything at all.
Finally, HSBC is the banker and financier for KITCO. KITCO is rumoured to have a huge naked short position in gold, and HSBC undoubtedly financed that operation. Both these organisations want to keep themselves in business... Mr. Nadler often sounds like he speaks for a company -- or companies -- on the wrong side of a losing bet.
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