Yesterday, the world was greeted by a much-trumpeted USA GDP report showing 'growth' has returned. Admittedly, the 'growth' was primarily the result of Federal Government stimulus, mainly in the form of the first time house-buyer credit, and the 'cash-for-clunkers' plan. These two giveaways really only pulled consumption forward as opposed to creating new demand. The collapse in auto sales after its programme ended proves the point.
More disturbingly, having the economy increasingly dependent on debt-funded, government stimulus is not a sound policy. Let us illustrate by analogy. Suppose Mr. Miller was down on his luck. Mr. Baker next door has a brilliant idea: "I have an unused credit line down at the Bank. Suppose I max it out and use the funds to buy flour from Mr. Miller. I need to buy flour anyhow. I'll just stock up and then gradually use it up." Mr. Miller is, naturally, delighted when the order for a tonne of flour comes in. He even needs to hire an assistant, Jack, and now Mr. Miller can order that new mill stone he'd been hankering after. GDP is now growing again!
Only here's the fly in the ointment: as Mr. Baker starts buying less flour as he draws down his stock, Mr. Miller's sales are lower than ever! Jack gets laid off and ends up moving into his parents' basement. Jack's former landlord is unable to find a new tenant and starts baking his own bread to economise. Mr Miller also reluctantly cancels the order for the new mill stone. Mr. Mason, faced with no prospects of further business, sells his home and joins a monastery. Mr. Baker is faced with falling sales, and now a hefty interest payment on that line of credit. GDP is falling again, and even worse than before!
A debt-binge set up the world economy for the 2007 Depression. The attempt to keep the debt party going will end in tears. Mark our words! [cue spooky music]
Showing posts with label cash for clunkers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cash for clunkers. Show all posts
Friday, October 30, 2009
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Housing Price Report for October
Our result for the first five months of our North American Housing Price Index is a drop of 11.64%. As previously mentioned, we attempted to make an adjustment to not skew the data by the 'higher end' of the market. Because of recent strength in the 'lower end' of the market, the overall index is showing signs of stability.
Is this a sign of the 'bottom' in the housing market? We think not. Sales have been boosted by the much-trumpeted 10% US Federal income tax credit. Just as auto sales 'crashed' after the cash-for-clunkers plan was suspended, so too will housing sales wilt as the tax credit is wound down.
Is this a sign of the 'bottom' in the housing market? We think not. Sales have been boosted by the much-trumpeted 10% US Federal income tax credit. Just as auto sales 'crashed' after the cash-for-clunkers plan was suspended, so too will housing sales wilt as the tax credit is wound down.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
U.S. Government's Latest Conflict of Interest
With the U.S. Federal Government firmly in the automobile manufacturing business, we make the fearless prediction that they will be staying into the business until the Government itself collapses into ruin. When that day may come is anyone's guess, but in the meanwhile the United States is stuck with a Government-owned car company. Prepare for even more waste, even more unreliability, and even more ugly to be found in your next new GM car, dear Reader - if you are fool enough to buy one.
But that is neither here nor there; what we'd like to point out is that the Government is positioning itself for a conflict-of-interest situation. A "cash for clunkers" bill is presently making its way through Congress, and it seems to have a good chance at becoming law. The programme would give up to a $4,500 credit to buyers who trade in their older vehicle (25 years old and newer) for a brand-new vehicle. This will come with the price-tag of $4 billion... just a drop in the bucket, really.
The problem is, the Federal Government owns a couple car companies... and here it goes, putting out a bill to pay people to buy new cars! Instant conflict of interest: the Government would naturally prefer you, dear Reader, buys their cars, not the vastly superior Japanese or European models which might catch your eye. When the "clunkers" programme becomes law, we posit it's only a hop, skip, and a jump to legislation punishing those who purchase cars from the non-Government-owned manufacturers. Such a thing would fall loosely under the "Buy American" nonsense.
As an aside, and despite the concerns raised in this article about the possible bad effects the "clunkers" programme will have on auto repair shops, we suspect the new GM (and probably Chrysler) cars will suck so bad that they'll break some expensive - and functionless - part before the first oil change. Repair shops will have booming business for awhile, swapping out broken parts with faulty replacements.
***
At this point, we're officially putting Ford on the death-watch. Sure, the company may be able to limp along for awhile, but at some point Ford too will fail. The Government will be waiting with money in hand to add to its burgeoning car manufacturing empire.
But that is neither here nor there; what we'd like to point out is that the Government is positioning itself for a conflict-of-interest situation. A "cash for clunkers" bill is presently making its way through Congress, and it seems to have a good chance at becoming law. The programme would give up to a $4,500 credit to buyers who trade in their older vehicle (25 years old and newer) for a brand-new vehicle. This will come with the price-tag of $4 billion... just a drop in the bucket, really.
The problem is, the Federal Government owns a couple car companies... and here it goes, putting out a bill to pay people to buy new cars! Instant conflict of interest: the Government would naturally prefer you, dear Reader, buys their cars, not the vastly superior Japanese or European models which might catch your eye. When the "clunkers" programme becomes law, we posit it's only a hop, skip, and a jump to legislation punishing those who purchase cars from the non-Government-owned manufacturers. Such a thing would fall loosely under the "Buy American" nonsense.
As an aside, and despite the concerns raised in this article about the possible bad effects the "clunkers" programme will have on auto repair shops, we suspect the new GM (and probably Chrysler) cars will suck so bad that they'll break some expensive - and functionless - part before the first oil change. Repair shops will have booming business for awhile, swapping out broken parts with faulty replacements.
***
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Building the AmeriCar Market
As we wrote previously, we have a pet theory that the U.S. Federal Government is in the process - deliberate or accidental - of forming a national car manufacturer, owned and operated by the Government. With Chrysler in bankruptcy, never to repay the over $7 billion in loans from the Government, we suspect that the process of forming "AmeriCar" is accelerating (if you'll pardon the expression).
However, as anyone who has actually paid attention knows, most American automobiles suck. It's all well and good that the Federal Government might be running its own car company in the future, but who's going to buy the crap that will - almost certainly - be produced? If the Soviet Union is any indication, the national cars will be impressively crappy... except for the members of the Government, of course.
We suspect that the preliminary methods for corralling people looking to buy new cars will be similar to the "cash for clunkers" programme; older autos can be traded in for a rebate on a new vehicle. It wouldn't be difficult to extend that programme to apply only to vehicles purchased from "AmeriCar." Indeed, an even more draconian move - and in keeping with the "Buy American" mantra of the Obama Administration and Congress - would be to restrict the programme to only American-made cars, on both the trade-in and the new auto. Additionally, we wouldn't be surprised to see hefty tariffs on imported vehicles, to further coerce buyers to get "AmeriCar" vehicles.
However, as anyone who has actually paid attention knows, most American automobiles suck. It's all well and good that the Federal Government might be running its own car company in the future, but who's going to buy the crap that will - almost certainly - be produced? If the Soviet Union is any indication, the national cars will be impressively crappy... except for the members of the Government, of course.
We suspect that the preliminary methods for corralling people looking to buy new cars will be similar to the "cash for clunkers" programme; older autos can be traded in for a rebate on a new vehicle. It wouldn't be difficult to extend that programme to apply only to vehicles purchased from "AmeriCar." Indeed, an even more draconian move - and in keeping with the "Buy American" mantra of the Obama Administration and Congress - would be to restrict the programme to only American-made cars, on both the trade-in and the new auto. Additionally, we wouldn't be surprised to see hefty tariffs on imported vehicles, to further coerce buyers to get "AmeriCar" vehicles.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
