The Future of Air Transport

In an energy-constricted world, the efficiency of every enterprise will dictate its longevity. We have already stated that automobiles, buses and trucks will be fading as a primary source of transportation in places where they are thus. Trains, where they are in place, have a promising future as they are remarkably efficient for both freight and passenger transport. Waterborne transport is a human constant, but what of air transport?

Air transport is slightly more fuel efficient than passenger cars, but much less efficient than trucks for freight. Thus, the near-term future of air transport hinges largely on freight. Is speedy air freight merely a luxury that will be cut in a more austere future? And how important is freight to the air transport industry in general?

According to the International Air Transportation Association, World air freight is down 21.4% from March 2008 to March 2009. Freight tonnage peaked in 2007, and it will be revealing if air freight loses market share over the years ahead.

However, it turns out that freight is not that important to the air industry, only accounting for 11% or so of its revenues. And so for the time being, it could be said that the air transport could expect a relatively graceful descent - if they can manage their gradual contraction proactively.

Airplane manufacture, on the other hand, will probably suffer a catastrophic collapse. Growth in air transport is over. A glut of fully functional planes is developing and will annihilate the order books of manufacturers. Layoffs have already begun. Expect lengthy wastes of capital on expensive government bailouts to 'save jobs'.