Introducing the Economic Stress Report

We've developed a method of measuring economic stress by State within in the United States. We believe it is fairly accurate, but it is, at the very least, not doctored or focus-group tested for maximum warm-fuzzy-feeling-ness. Our method is a secret, but it is tied to each State's percentage share of the total U.S. population.

Related to that, our depth of data is presently not sufficient for us to analyse the economic condition of some of the States in the Union. In the coming weeks we expect our data quality to improve, and concurrently our ability to analyse these States.

With that, we officially launch our Economic Stress Report. On our stress watch list are the following States, in order of most to least distressed:

South Dakota, Maryland, Arizona, Hawai'i, North Carolina, Ohio, Connecticut, Oregon, New York, Florida, and Georgia.

Our of those States, the following have suffered bank closures - another measure of stress - since December 2007: Maryland (1), North Carolina (2), Florida (5), and Georgia (11). Based on this information, we have several predictions to make:

One: unemployment in Maryland is going to "unexpectedly" spike in the coming months. Although the State is touted as having strong support from the Federal Government, and currently is experiencing unemployment below the national average, it has ranked second place in our analysis, so we suspect the Government-supported economy will begin to fail catastrophically. Additionally, more bank closures in the State should be forthcoming.

Two: numerous bank closures should be imminent in South Dakota, as it is the most distressed State in our analysis. Considering Georgia has suffered eleven closures, proportionally South Dakota should have seen over one hundred closures this far into the Depression. Why there have been no closures in South Dakota is a mystery as it is an important banking centre - especially for credit cards, but we posit that the longer there are no closures, the worse the eventual collapse of the State's banking system will be.

Three: Arizona, Hawai'i, Ohio, Connecticut, Oregon, and New York should all be seeing bank closures in the near future. Florida and North Carolina should also see additional bank failures, if Georgia is to be taken as a benchmark.

We are uncertain how rapidly we will be able to provide updates on the Stress Report. However, at present we suspect not less frequentlly than monthly. Rest assured we will keep you updated.