The Last "Normal" Holiday Season

As we prepare our purposefully irreverent meal for this day of thanksgiving - boiled oats and day-old biscuits - we would like to stop and make a fearless prediction which has been rolling around in our heads since about the middle of this year. We really don't have any hard data to back up our assertion; in fact, we're going to just put it right out there, that this is an intuition.

Simply put, we posit this will be the last holiday season that anyone in the United States, or elsewhere, can call normal. Note the call normal; last year saw the last holiday season which could be considered actually normal. This season, however, will be all about keeping up appearances; the show must go on, after all.

Take this Thanksgiving in the United States; 49 million Citizens are going hungry at the end of every month. Now, at last report in September, 28.4 million Citizens are on food stamps. Hmm, we sense a number problem here... but anyway, on top of that, half of all children in the U.S. will receive food aid, as well as 90% of African-American children.

Let that settle in your mind for a moment, dear Reader. Those numbers are not from Haiti or Zimbabwe, but rather the only so-called superpower in the world, the United States. Those are not good numbers to be seeing from an OECD nation; it makes us think about terms like 'third world' and 'failed state.'

This will be a failed Thanksgiving; people will max out what little credit they have remaining for the month in order to have a 'feast.' By that, we mean keep up appearances, as there are really very few people in the U.S. right now who can actually afford to have an extravagant meal, pay their bills, and have savings. Perhaps the 'recovery' propaganda has worked its magic, and most Citizens have moved into a Keynesian dreamland, where they spend now and have an economy later. We frankly think not; we posit most U.S. Citizens couldn't make a budget - and keep it - if their lives depended on it. For 49 million of those Citizens, their lives do depend on it, and they seem to prove unequal to the task.

After Thanksgiving will be the failed consumer orgy of Christmas; failed, because one cannot have an orgy if no one shows up. That's not to say that lights won't be strung and trees erected, because they will be... probably with more 'animal spirits' energy than ever. Under those trees, though, will tell the real tale. Show us an average Citizen who has lots of gifts, and we will show you someone who is nearing the end of their financial rope.

As we're writing, an ironic thought occurs to us: would it not be an expression of cosmic justice, if the attempt at summoning up a holiday shopping extravaganza is what finally topples the still-tottering U.S. economy? Think about it: maxing out credit cards for one last huzzah; blowing the savings on gifts for the kids, or Social Security cheques on the grandkids? Citizens of the United States are far too broke to enjoy the spendy, spendy ways to which they became accustomed; at this point, they should go limp, take their financial kicks to the stomach, and try to get things in order again. Instead, they will - and we mean will - go down, in vast numbers, and in flames.