Peak Population

There is fair amount of writing available about humanity's date with 'die-off', and although this is a possibility for the world, we believe a much gentler scenario will bring about a gradual decline in human numbers. It is not a particularly happy scenario though.

We agree with Dr. Virginia Abernethy's theory that it is anticipation of prosperity that causes people to choose to have many children, and concerns of hardship that cause them to limit their reproducing.

In the coming years, as the 2007 Depression deepens, many will come to realise they simply cannot afford children. Most potential parents will see dimmer prospects for themselves, less generosity from relatives, less aid from governments and social service organisations. In poorer countries, their will be less charitable aid coming in, and starvation will become more common.

It will take some time for real population restraint to take hold. Many people will continue to have children expecting the economy to 'turn around'. Efforts to limit migration from poorer countries to richer ones will build only gradually. Recognition that the world's economic landscape has changed will come only long after the fact.

But nevertheless, we expect to see noticeable changes in birthrates in the next few years. Many nations are already at below-replacement birth rates and rely on immigration to maintain their populations (if possible). Most of these nations' governments view this situation as a bad thing and have generous welfare programs to encourage childbearing. We expect steadily more nations to join the club of 'sub-replacement fertility' in spite of ever more shrill complaints about 'demographic collapse'.

We are not of the opinion that declining population in itself is necessarily a bad thing. In any case, it is an appropriate response to a deteriorating economic outlook.