Monday, January 26, 2009

Are Big Banks Committing Suicide?

We were chatting with a friend the other day, who holds a middling commercial loan from a major bank. He's a very good client of this major bank, and he has been with this bank for quite some time. He told us this bank was going to charge him a fee equal to about 5% of the value of his loan. Apparently, this 'fee' was do to an error on the bank's part, but they were going to charge him, anyway!

Another friend has held a line of credit from another major bank for over a decade. Just recently his interest rate on his card's balance was doubled to 20%. He, too, had been a good client, and always paid his bills on time.

Earlier we wrote about Citigroup backing mortgage cram-downs, and how we felt there was something fishy about the whole thing. Then we saw articles like this one from Bloomberg, or human-interest pieces like this from WiseBread.com... and we really started to wonder. Are these major banks actually queuing up on a roof, waiting for the opportune moment to jump to their death?

Lending is the bread and butter of these major banks. They are alienating their borrowers, but they can't make money without lending... so they must have something else up their sleeve. Personally, we think it's our beloved Synthetic CDOs. Bear with us for a moment, dear Reader.

With AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Big Three on the government dole, their collapse has been pushed off into the future. That means the SCDOs won't be triggered by the deaths of those companies. However, SCDOs typically have money center banks as a default trigger on the trillions waiting offshore.

The management of these major banks know they can't kill the car companies... but they can destroy their own banks. Then, the SCDO dollars will flow bank into the United States. Where to, you wonder? Well, with the big banks presumably shut down, where else can the money go but into the pockets of the management? We would wager the managers have set up private investment vehicles which have taken the benefit of the SCDO payout off of the banks' books. Think of it as the ultimate golden parachute.

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