Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Mass Unemployment + Heavy Debts = Ruin

In the USA, household debt as a percentage of household income is at an all-time high. At the same time, for most households, income is falling - making the debts more onerous. For a significant minority, long-term unemployment or underemployment means income has collapsed and the debt burden is overwhelming - usually resulting in default and bankruptcy.

We have been reading many 'horror stories' about people who had good jobs, but lost them and were unable to replace them, and then drowned in their debts. These people are no longer at the fringes of society, but just another form of 'normal'.

We are beginning to see the human side of this Depression as a series of millions of little catastrophes. Lives that were until recently lived more or less conforming to the typical American Consumer Lifestyle: House, Car, Stuff - complete with mortgage, car loan, and credit card balances. Then income loss leads to wipe out: getting behind on bills, letting them go, and then the repo men take it all away.

It's hard to guess how many will follow this path, but we suspect about half the population. It's going to create a very different America. Luckily for the powers-that-be, most will probably just blame themselves.

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