U.S. in Recession Since 1999

Thanks to the Canadian penchant for accurate, undoctored statistics, we've been able to find some pretty persuasive evidence that the United States entered into a recession in 1999 or 2000. This article from The Vancouver Sun spells it out very clearly, based on tourism from the U.S. to Canada.

First, a little analysis: Canada represents the cheapest, most convenient foreign tourism destination for the vast majority of American citizens. It is also the only 'safe' (i.e. family friendly) foreign nation one can drive to. The historically favourable strength that the U.S. Dollar has enjoyed against the Canadian Dollar also made tourism attractively affordable.

Considering all that, let's look at what The Sun has to say. In 1999, the number of same-day car volume between the U.S. and Canada was about 27.3 million cars. This presumably represents both day trips to Canada, and Americans cutting through Canada to get to other parts of the U.S. Now, fast forward to 2008: same-day car volume is down to 9.1 million cars, the lowest number on record since Statistics Canada began counting cars in 1972.

It gets even more impressive: Indian visitors to Canada has risen about 6.9% a year since 1995. Indian visitors to British Columbia went up 11.4% (to 35,000 visitors) last year alone, and December -- that cold, bleak month -- saw a 41.6% rise in Indian tourists over last year. 2008 saw American visitors (both same-day and overnight) drop 11.6% (to 4.4 million).

Although the sheer number of American tourists is impressive, the fact that a massive collapse of ~66% over ten years is a bad sign. Indians have much further to go than Americans, but yet their numbers are becoming greater every year for over a decade. This is very, very bad news for the financial position of a vast number of American citizens: if they have been increasingly unable to afford a trip to Canada over the past decade, then this economy is in significantly worse shape than is generally recognised.