We had a conversation the other day with a friend of ours, who was wondering where and when he might begin to see signs of the Depression we've been incessantly talking about for months. "When will people start saying that they can't afford anything? When will they realise they cannot spend money on their trinkets anymore?" was the general thrust of his questions. We wish to expound on our answer here, in today's post.
The problem with looking to people for signs of the effects of the 2007 Depression is simply that human beings have an immense capacity for self-deception. People tell themselves - and anyone else who will listen - that things will get better as soon as the economy recovers; or as soon as Ralph gets a new job; or when the widget factory reopens; or any number of things. In our opinion, none of these things are ever going to happen (i.e. the economy is not going to recover; Ralph is not getting a new job; the widget factory is permanently shuttered).
The reasons that human beings have this awe-inspiring capacity for self-deception are not clear, and indeed a full half of Sociology is devoted to discovering said reasons (the other half being devoted to profiting from the phenomenon). However self-deception comes about, it is a force which cannot be overstated, estimated, or compensated for.
Self-deception also makes it impossible to look at what people say or do in order to judge the extent and depth of the Depression. Typically speaking, a person will never admit that their situation is dire... or indeed, that he or she is experiencing difficulties of any sort!
An issue now arises: how does one look for evidence of the 2007 Depression if one cannot look to people? Our suggestion is to look to the infrastructure one constantly uses in one's daily life. As a South African woman once wrote to James Kunstler, "It began with a few potholes in the road... Potholes may well be the singular measure of the calamity we are in or about to face." Read that letter, Dear Reader, and watch the roads around you. We've been watching our city's roads, and we are very disturbed with what we see.
Friday, June 26, 2009
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2 comments:
thank you for writing a daily newsletter. I check this out everytime i'm curious about the overall market. Its extremely easy to find.
Thank you for your kind words! I'm glad to hear you enjoy the writings of Mr. Smith and myself.
-TFS
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