It's now official, folks: according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the United States is in a recession... which started in December 2007. Actually, the recession is really a depression, but that's a detail; the illusion that things are just 'slow' has been eradicated, a year into the problem. Whatever the case, we wish the Depression a happy first birthday!
It is customary to name a depression after the year in which it started, so officially the United States is in the 2007 Depression. We resist the temptation to retcon our previous posts to fit the present circumstances, but we will use 2007 Depression from now on. It is the way this depression will be remembered in the history books, and who are we to argue with history?
Now that the economic situation is 'official,' let's look at what this may mean. One thing we feel is certain: fear is going to be much stronger than before. As an example, news has broken that credit card companies are thinking of cutting $2 trillion in consumer credit. Although we aren't convinced the banks will actually do this, it's a sign of increased tension and fear.
Fear will also help drive President-elect Barack Obama's sweeping social programmes with neck-snapping speed. In the manner of President Franklin Roosevelt before him, we believe Mr. Obama will be coming out swinging... and one doesn't want to be in his way. We fear his new policies, like Roosevelt's inept and destructive New Deal, will only serve to worsen and prolong the 2007 Depression.
Monday, December 1, 2008
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