The Reality of Peak Minerals

An idea which is gaining traction in the mainstream is Peak Oil, the inevitable maximum level of world oil production. The idea of limits to growth is not a happy one for most, so we will sidestep the argument of whether or not scarcity of energy can be overcome with technology. Instead, we merely point to the facts: all major oil producers have peaked, and indeed world oil production (excluding ethanol, tarsands, and other such silliness) peaked in 2005.

But what of other minerals, the stuff that oil rigs and cellphones are made of? Their futures are no different from that of oil. In fact, many minerals have already peaked: the fertilisers potash and phosphate rock both peaked in 1989; industrial metals lead and cadmium peaked in 1986 and 1989 respectively;... and we hear rumblings that peak copper has recently been reached.

If peak minerals were to have occurred absent peak oil, the increasing scarcity of minerals might not have been as bad. However, the world is facing both increasingly-difficult-to-mine minerals, and increasingly-difficult-to-drill oil. Quite simply, this means that the prices of anything that requires oil and minerals will be going up in price - if not nominally (i.e. increased purchase price), in any case in terms of affordability (i.e. lowered personal income).

It seems to us that this is just about everything. Although some may say that improved technology will help alleviate the pressures of scarcity on supply and cost, we respectfully disagree. The pressures of scarcity will be made even more painful with the 2007 Depression. Falling incomes will make one poorer, inflation will burn up the purchasing power of what money one gets, and one's stuff will be more costly to buy... one will be feeling triplely poorer.